Perth, Sept 15: Australia’s Indigenous population before European colonisation may have been dramatically larger than previously believed, with new research estimating that about 93 per cent of the population was lost in the decades following the arrival of the First Fleet.
Published in Nature Human Behaviour, the study estimates that around 2.22 million Indigenous people lived across Australia before European colonisation in 1788 — substantially higher than many historical estimates.
Researchers used computer modelling alongside archaeological evidence, genetic reconstructions, ethnographic observations and estimates of the continent’s environmental carrying capacity to reconstruct Indigenous population levels before colonisation.
The findings challenge estimates that have shaped understanding of Australia’s pre-colonial population for decades.
One influential estimate came from anthropologist Alfred Radcliffe-Brown in the 1930s, who put the population at about 250,000.
More recent estimates have generally ranged between 250,000 and one million.
The researchers argue these figures are likely to be too low because many historical observations and early population counts occurred after Indigenous communities had already experienced disease, frontier violence and structural violence associated with colonisation.
Professor Corey Bradshaw, Flinders University Global Ecology Professor and a Chief Investigator with the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, said establishing the size of the population before 1788 was important to understanding what followed.
“Understanding the size of Indigenous populations in Australia before European invasion in 1788 is essential to truth-telling and reconciliation,” Bradshaw said.
The modelling produced a median pre-colonial population estimate of 2.22 million people, equivalent to approximately 0.29 people per square kilometre.
More striking is what researchers estimate happened next.
Between 1788 and 1861, the model calculates approximately 2.06 million excess deaths — an average of around 28,200 each year.
By 1861, researchers estimate that only about seven per cent of the pre-colonial Indigenous population remained.
Lead author Associate Professor Alan Williams said the results illustrated both the devastating demographic consequences of colonisation and the survival of Indigenous Australians.
“These devastating findings highlight the major impacts of invasion experienced by Indigenous Australians, and demonstrate their remarkable survival, resilience and recovery over the past century,” Williams said.
The Indigenous population has grown substantially since the middle of the 20th century, but according to the researchers, the population recorded in the 2021 Census represented only around 37 per cent of their estimated median population for 1788.
Based on current population growth trends, they estimate parity with the pre-colonial population could be reached around 2047.
Distinguished Professor Lynette Russell of the Monash University Indigenous Studies Centre said the findings had implications extending beyond historical population estimates.
“The findings highlight the scale of demographic catastrophe experienced by Indigenous Australians due to colonisation, with the implications being a heightened understanding of intergenerational trauma and to inform future policy that assists Indigenous people,” Russell said.
She added that alongside recognising intergenerational trauma and disadvantage, Australia should also recognise “intergenerational privilege”.
Distinguished Professor Larissa Behrendt AO, chair of the CIEHF Centre Advisory Committee, said the research required Australians to reconsider the magnitude of the demographic transformation that followed European settlement.
“We are not talking about a marginal consequence of colonisation but a demographic catastrophe at the heart of the Australian story,” Behrendt said.
“But the research also tells us something extraordinary. Our survival is one of Australian history’s most remarkable stories.”
The study, Large size of the Australian Indigenous population prior to its massive decline following colonial invasion, was authored by Alan Williams, Raymond Tobler, Billy Griffiths, Sean Ulm, Matthew Nitschke, Michael Bird, Shane Ingrey, Frédérik Saltré, Kirsty Beller, Ian McNiven, Nicholas Pitt, Lynette Russell, Alistair Paterson, Christopher Wilson and Corey Bradshaw.
It was published in Nature Human Behaviour and funded jointly by two Australian Research Council Centres of Excellence.
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